书籍 The Drunkard's Walk的封面

The Drunkard's Walk

Leonard Mlodinow

出版社

Pantheon

出版时间

2008-05-13

ISBN

9780375424045

评分

★★★★★
书籍介绍

In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.

The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.

How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.

Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book ...

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用户评论
新年读完的第一本书,说我们的生活其实是被偶然事件所统治,所有成功失败也没有看起来的那么理直气壮,有趣。
读完又滚回去捡起概率论沉思录了…
有意思~里面的例子很有趣~ "If you want to increase your success rate, double your failure rate"
Not bad
关于概率统计的科普读物。文字流畅,故事精彩。
一口氣看了前面一半,後來縂有書擠進來,結果空了一大段時間,再次撿起來已經把已經看得部分忘記得七七八八了。但是一看,立刻就看進去的。每一章節的開始,都是一個非常吸引人的小故事,然後通過這個小故事或者軼事,慢慢地引出作者想講述的論點。最終就是人生其實很多是偶然,但是不能因爲是偶然,我們就不做努力,因爲努力不一定有用,但是不努力是一定沒有用的。
简易版本的《概率论与数理统计》,甚至连公式定理出场的顺序都差不多。但对于我这种数学不行的人来说还是有点吃力,读前半部分的时候还在想,要是大学时读到这本书,也许我的概统就不会挂了,等读到贝叶斯分析的时候,不得不承认当年概统老师挂我挂得很有道理。
哎我以为是讲随机游走啥的结果是入门概率科普书……
如果慎言需要有科学依据,统计与概率就是最好的支撑。作者最后一章结论下的有点快,然后引用的研究有些已经过时了。但整本书写的太好看了,回头补一篇书评。